Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased

Past forecast errors are employed frequently in the estimation of the unconditional forecast uncertainty, and several institutions have increased their forecast horizons in recent times. This work addresses the question of how forecast-error-based estimation can be performed if there are very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends the results of Knüppel (2014) in order to relax the condition on the data structure that is required for the SUR estimator to be independent of unknown quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of the forecast uncertainty, which estimates the forecast uncertainty for all horizons jointly, tends to deliver large efficiency gains relative to the OLS estimator (i.e., the sample mean of the squared forecast errors for each individual horizon) in the case of increased forecast horizons. The SUR estimator is applied to the forecast errors of the Bank of England, the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the FOMC.     

Leadership in agricultural machinery circles: experimental evidence from Tajikistan

Leadership is critical for the viability of rural groups. The way in which leadership is legitimised can mediate leader and group member behaviour in the face of social dilemmas. Yet there has been scant research on leader‐follower dynamics in naturally occurring groups. Highlighting the case of agricultural machinery circles in Tajikistan, the effect of leading by example on investments to a collective good is studied in a framed field experiment. To increase realism, and contrary to standard economic experiments, this investment is a voucher allowing the group to make a real‐world machinery purchase at reduced costs. Two treatments manipulate leaders’ legitimisation. Elected leaders achieve 30 per cent higher contributions to the collective investment against a baseline version without a leader. Contributions remain, on average, relatively stable over the course of the game. The results are discussed with reference to the debate on external intervention in agricultural producer organisations.     

Cross-cultural entrepreneurship research: Current status and framework for future studies

Although cross-cultural research in the field of entrepreneurship is still in its infancy as a research stream, it offers important inferences for both theory and practice. Some have criticized the relative immaturity of previous survey-based studies’ methodology. In order to address this flaw, we analyze existing survey-based studies in the field of cross-cultural entrepreneurship to identify research gaps in content and methodology and then derive the most appropriate analytical approach to fill the gaps for this type of research. Finally, we present a practical framework in which to conduct sound and prudent future studies, integrating the most appropriate analytical approach, general methodological insights, and the particularities of entrepreneurship research in a cross-cultural setting.

Assessing cross-cultural marketing theory and research

A content analysis of 99 articles focuses on the comparative cross-cultural marketing research in 14 leading marketing and business journals from 1990 to 2008. The content analysis indicates strong growth in cross-cultural studies, especially in terms of studies on consumer attitudes and behavior and on promotion-related topics. This study classifies articles according to a series of conceptual (e.g., cultural dimensions employed in the study) and methodological (e.g., use of analytical technique) criteria. Although researchers have advanced in both conceptual and methodological respects, the studies still focus strongly on the dimensions from Hofstede (2001); methodologically, the dominance of two-country studies is problematic. Further, survey data from North America and Europe and researchers based and trained in North America and Europe are still dominant in the research field.     

Contextual Framing and Monetary Incentives in Field Experiments on Risk Preferences: Evidence from German Farmers

Recent studies cast doubt on the ability of abstract experiments to predict decision‐making in the field. Thus, scholars have argued for more ‘realism’ by introducing context to field experiments. Yet, such realism may work against the induced values of monetary incentives in economic experiments. It is an open question whether contextual framing works best with or without inducing values, through methods such as the use of monetary incentives. Using a sample of 146 German farmers, we compare experimentally the predictive power of a framed lottery in an agricultural context vs. using an abstract version. For one half of the sample, lotteries are incentivised; for the other half, they are hypothetical. Although risk preferences differ between treatments, all four lottery tasks correlate poorly with farmers’ real‐world use of risk management instruments such as harvest or hail insurance. Subjects who start with an agricultural framing are willing to take significantly greater risks in the lotteries. More generally, our findings cast doubt on the ability of lottery tasks to predict risk‐taking in the field.     

Ethical Decision-Making in Family Firms: The Role of Employee Identification

Journal of Business Ethics - The ethical behavior prevalent in an organization often determines business success or failure. Much research in the business context has scrutinized ethical behavior,...     

Determining fixed crane areas in rail–rail transshipment yards

To enable rapid container transshipment between freight trains in modern rail–rail transshipment yards efficient computerized scheduling procedures are indispensable. This paper proposes a dynamic programming approach, which determines yard areas for gantry cranes, so that the workload is evenly spread among cranes and, thus, train processing is accelerated. In a straightforward simulation of transshipment yard operations, the effect of optimal crane areas vs. equally sized areas is studied, the latter being a common real-world policy. The results indicate a remarkable speed-up of train processing if optimal crane areas are applied.